Escapist Asylum

毕老林

七大工业国（G7）刚在加拿大开了一次会，好多人以为金融改革、人民币，以至环球经济失衡、债务危机这些众所关注的议题，必然成为会议焦点。却其实，在一众财金官员心底里，最值得探讨的也许并非以上任何一项，而是G7会议今后还有没有举行的必要。

大家若有留意周末《金融时报》一则毫不起眼的消息，大概已发现有出席会议的财金要员私底下透露，这次可能是发达国财长最后一次以G7名义聚首一堂商议环球经济大事，而这位不具名官员在周末会前更抛下一句话：「G7浪费时间！」

老毕看后甚有同感，这不仅由于中、印、巴西等新兴大国在全球经济的影响力与日俱增，没有她们的参与，「采取措施稳定全球市场」一类冠冕堂皇的话，殊无实质意义，还因为中国并非G7成员，美欧日却都是中国的主要贸易对手，在G7会议上讨论人民币应否升值，难道会有人持反对意见？反过来看，既已设立成员国包括主要新兴经济体的二十国集团（G20），继续浪费人力物力举行只有富国参与、注定一事无成的会议，却又所为何来？

不过，这次G7会议仍有一事值得注意。与会代表在声明中承诺采取措施稳定全球市场，方法是继续刺激经济。换句话说，在刚结束、可能是G7最后一次会议中，七大工业国传递了一个清楚讯息：退市遥遥无期。这份声明若在一年前甚至半年前发出，当能达到稳定全球市场的效果。不幸的是，2010跟2009已是两个世界，去年乃投资市场「冒险年」（A year of risk-taking），今年则是避险意识抬头的一年。

留意美德债息差距

时移世易，投资者刻下最想知道的是发达国打算怎样退市，在不引发市场剧烈波动的前提下撤回去年的紧急措施。G7重申继续刺激经济，等于扩张性财政政策基调不变，发达国财长对市场尤其债市投资者最关注的公共财政恶化避而不谈，这种pro-growth唯于如何「付钞」一事含糊其词的立场，在国债市场深陷违约忧虑的今天，只会迫使债券投资者继续以行动测试政府底线，不仅无助稳定全球市场，还会令危机不断扩散乱上加乱。

Short dollar / long everything else，2009年是必胜方程式，这从美汇跟标普500指数逆向关连性一度高达-0.94可见一斑。不过，今年1月初两者的关连性一度大幅降至似有若无的-0.26，难就难在，年初美元反弹美股同时创新高，投资者不容易判断风险／避难／经济复苏各股力量孰轻孰重。上周，美汇更上层楼而风险资产大跌，连黄金亦不能独善其身，美金强一切俱弱的景象似又重现。发展下去系点，仍须观望。

不过，大家除了看美汇指数外，还应留意息差因素。上周四道指单日挫逾200点，避险资金流入美元美债，美国十年期债息大跌10个基点，执笔时徘徊于3.5厘水平。值得注意的是，担心希腊、葡萄牙、西班牙等欧洲弱国出事的投资者，同时涌入德国国债避险，德国十年期债息跌得比美债更急，执笔时处于3.1厘水平。

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• China First Heavy Industries Co. became the first company in at least a year to fail to raise the maximum amount sought in a Shanghai initial public offering after the benchmark index fell 15 percent from its 2009 high. (Bloomberg)
• Investors opened fewer accounts to trade Chinese equities last week as the Shanghai Composite Index posted the world’s second-worst performance on concern the government will step up measures to slow the economy. (Bloomberg)
• A bungalow on Singapore’s Ocean Drive, a stretch of luxury homes lined with Bentleys and Ferraris, sold for a record S$30 million ($21 million) in October. In Hong Kong, a duplex a third the size went for almost three times as much the same month. (Bloomberg)
• China Mobile Ltd. said it doesn’t plan to buy a stake in Tencent Holdings Ltd. after a newspaper report cited the carrier’s Chairman Wang Jianzhou as saying he hadn’t ruled out an investment in the future. (Bloomberg)
• Bank of China and its local subsidiary Bank of China (Hong Kong) are looking to issue bonds to repay loans and replenish capital. (The Standard)
• Cashed-up mainlanders snapped up almost one in five luxury flats sold in Hong Kong last year, a sign of their growing economic might in the city. (SCMP)
• CC Land Holdings (1224.HK) asked for a trading halt in its shares yesterday after its vice-chairman became embroiled in a corruption scandal in Chongqing, the municipality where themainland developer has the biggest land bank (SCMP)
• CHINA'S telecommunication industry revenue grew 4 percent annually in 2009, thanks to a rise in the number of new mobile phone subscribers and also on the debut of 3G technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said yesterday. (Shanghai Daily)
• THE World Expo is expected to strongly power Shanghai's economy this year by sparking a bigger demand across the city, an academic said yesterday. (Shanghai Daily)
• CHINA could overtake the United States to become the leading producer of manufactured goods in the next five to seven years, but the country needs to improve its social safety net to boost living standards, says a report from a major global economic organization. (Shanghai Daily)
• CHINA doubled the amount of energy generated from windmills last year, the Global Wind Energy Council said in a report yesterday. (Shanghai Daily)
• MUNICH Re targets China's solid economic expansion as a growth engine for its Asian business and sees the country having a bigger portfolio in the firm's business, a senior executive said in Shanghai yesterday. (Shanghai Daily)

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Enoch Yiu

The Monetary Authority has signalled that the HK$300 billion of hot money invested in the initial public offerings of mainland companies over the past few months may flow out at any time as the firms begin spending the funds at home.

HKMA chief executive Norman Chan Tak-lam, however, played down concerns about the capital outflow, and said continued hot money inflows posed the greater risk.

"Until November, 77 per cent of these mainland firms' fund raisings, or HK$260 billion, was still in Hong Kong," Chan told a Legislative Council panel meeting yesterday. "It estimated that there was still about HK$300 billion at the end of last year.

"Many market participants believe these mainland companies would need to bring these funds raised in Hong Kong back home for their expenses. But this would take time."

Chan said that if the Hong Kong stock market and listings continue to be active this year, hot money would keep flowing in. From the fourth quarter of 2008, HK$640 billion of capital had flowed into Hong Kong as the global financial crisis hit the United States and European markets, prompting invest to seek exposure to the fast-growing mainland economy.

"We rather need to be worried about the risks related to more capital inflow. Asset bubbles would still be the major risks faced by Hong Kong," Chan said. "When banks have money, they would like to increase lending and investors would like to borrow more amid the low interest rate environment. This may add fuel to the capital market."

Companies raised a total of HK$500 billion, including HK$340 billion by mainland companies, in Hong Kong last year, making it the largest listing market worldwide.

Joseph Tong Tang, the chief executive of brokerage Sun Hung Kai Financial, said many mainland firms had not taken the funds raised in Hong Kong back home as they use some proceeds to pay overseas suppliers or make overseas investments.

"This is why these mainland firms opt for a listing in Hong Kong instead of Shanghai," Tong said. "Usually, if companies have business relationship with foreign firms, they like to raise funds in Hong Kong."

Tong said hot money would likely continue to flow as there were still mega listings to come such as American International Assurance, the largest life insurer in Asia.

The fear of a potential capital outflow came as the Hang Seng Index dropped below 20,000 points, the lowest in nine months, over the past three trading days. Last month alone, the index fell more than 2,000 points, dragged down by the weak US and mainland markets.

But Tong said there was no panic selling. "Some clients may sell stock to hold cash, but they keep their money with us and wait for a market bounce back," he said. "I do not believe hot money would leave Hong Kong this year. Investors always go to the market where they can make money. Hong Kong is definitely looking more positive than many others."

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Fresh reminder policies not always implemented

Daniel Ren in Shanghai

Investors in Hong Kong and on the mainland were reminded again yesterday that what Beijing policymakers announce may not come to pass after the once highly anticipated through-train investment programme was officially shelved.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange said in a statement that the rule enabling Chinese individuals to directly buy Hong Kong-listed stocks was being invalidated in "keeping with the times".

The official announcement the through train is being scarpped is yet another example of mainland financial policies being reversed amid the roller-coaster rides on the domestic and overseas equity markets.

"It is not news since it was known to all that the through train had derailed a long time ago," said Morgan Stanley analyst Allen Gui. "Programmes of that kind will never surface again."

SAFE announced in August 2007 that the mainland would allow individual investors to trade Hong Kong stocks directly under a trial run.

It was a ground-breaking move to direct capital outflow and boost mainland companies listed in Hong Kong, which traded at a huge discount to their A-share counterparts.

The regulator designated Bank of China's branch in Tianjin's Binhai area to run the business under a pilot scheme. Thousands of Chinese residents flocked to Tianjin to open accounts, believing they could strike it rich in the Hong Kong stock market.

The through-train programme triggered a buying euphoria in Hong Kong even before its official launch, with the Hang Seng Index soaring more than 40 per cent within a month. But a split between the mainland's securities regulator and the foreign exchange watchdog stopped the mainland taking substantive steps towards implementing the rule.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission strongly opposed the rule, saying a huge capital outflow would undermine the growth of the domestic market.

In November 2007, Premier Wen Jiabao said the scheme would not be implemented soon because Beijing needed time to work out proper rules to ensure the smooth running of the programme.

"Beijing had reason to be cautious at that time since Hong Kong stocks had already staged a strong rally, increasing the risks for mainland investors," said Chen Jiwu, the president of Shanghai Vstone Capital.

Beijing has abandoned the idea of letting individual investors trade overseas stocks directly, analysts said. Instead, financial regulators have redoubled efforts to encourage buying into qualified domestic institutional investor funds. They hope retail investors will give their money to the professionals to invest in overseas stocks.

In October last year, Beijing granted a combined US$1.5 billion QDII quota to two mainland asset managers for overseas equity purchases after a 17-month hiatus.

Some observers say the U-turn Beijing made on the through-train scheme has caused further damage to the credibility of regulators.

In 2007, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced it would launch stock index futures in the Shanghai-based China Financial Futures Exchange. The plan was put on hold at the end of the year as Beijing worried that short selling would cause a boom-to-bust cycle on the mainland's volatile market.

In 2008, the regulator declared that margin trading and a short-selling trading mechanism would be launched, but it soon made an about-turn amid a bearish market.

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DB Access China Conference Highlights -

We hosted an expert presentation by Mr Shi Peifeng, China Wind Energy Association's Vice President. Key points are below: *Grid bottleneck is key constraint for wind power growth: In view of China's booming wind farm construction, Mr Shi expressed concerns for compatible grid infrastructure development due to the lack of incentives for gridco to connect the wind farm, construction difficulty in the grid network and the uncoordinated development plan of generation capacity and transmission capacity. In his view, the grid connection issue will be unresolved for a few years, and the government has not fully mapped out the grid construction plan to accommodate planned wind capacity growth. Hence, the 2020 wind capacity target is not finalized yet, and there is a risk that the final number could be closer to the lower end of the 100-150GW that the market expects.

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The State Council has approved in principle the launch of the long-awaited A-share stock index futures, margin trading and short selling. It may take three months to complete the preparations for index futures, a reasonable timeframe given that mock trading has been run for more than three years. Margin trading and short selling will probably start about the same time, if there is no major market volatility, though at the initial stage retail investors may not be allowed to participate.

We welcome this long-awaited policy announcement, as it opens a new chapter for China's domestic equity market. With these new rules, the A-share market will no longer be a "one-way street", as shorting and hedging become possible. It will significantly improve market liquidity and spur a range of new products that can be tailored for the needs of different investors. For portfolio managers, more instruments will become available for risk hedging. Brokers will benefit from the significant increase in transaction volumes and profit margins on new products and services. It is also a major step towards internationalization of the Chinese market. Pair trading involving shorting more expensive A-share names and buying cheaper H-share companies will become possible for global investors with QFII quotas. This new mechanism should result in more rational pricing in the A-share market.

The timing of this announcement seems well chosen. The SHCOMP index has been range-bound near 3,200 during the last three months and the current forward PE of 18x is close to the historical average. We believe the market will take the message positively in the short run, though a very strong index movement is unlikely. Support may mainly come from the expectation of improved liquidity. The new trading rules, coupled with upcoming new products designed by local funds and brokers, will likely attract new fund flows into the market, especially blue-chip index constituents. As for implementation, we think initially the scale would be limited, with pilot operations by qualified brokers, and is likely to involve tight restrictions on margin requirement and the size of short positions, and to be limited to qualified professional investors.

At company level, we see three types of beneficiary: 1) Local brokers. Our financial sector analyst Jones Ku initiated coverage on China Everbright (165.HK) with a Buy, the only local broker listed on HKEx and one of the eleven "innovative" brokers that are likely to qualify for short selling and margin trading services. 2) Some of the dual-listed blue-chip H-share names with significant A/H premiums – as the lack of short selling in the A-share market will no longer be a reason for persistent valuation gaps. Among those trading at high A/H premiums are Sinopec (124%), Chalco (72%), Shanghai Electric (200%), Air China (82%), China Shipping Container (70%), China Eastern (157%), Huadian (176%), and Guangzhou Shipyard (104%); 3) Insurance companies, as long-term investors with low turnover on their portfolio, will be able to enhance their income by lending some of their idle stock holdings.

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Ever heard of a Chinese domestic made cartoon called The Pleasant Goat and the Big Big Wolf (喜羊羊與灰太郎)? It’s a children’s cartoon series created by a local Chinese company and has over 590 episodes, broadcasted by 65 TV stations since its first appearance in 2005.  To many Chinese, this cartoon represents a kind of Chinese nationalism and culture as it was developed purely by a domestic company... and it’s the only domestic cartoon brand that is sizable enough to compete against Walt Disney cartoon products in China.  Now there is a rumor that Walt Disney wants to buy “The Pleasant Goat and the Big Big Wolf”.

This rumor is flying around the Chinese internet and many locals believe Walt Disney is interested in acquire this cartoon is to either hide it away, or to penetrate the Chinese kids market with western artistic style.

Remember the movie animation Mulan released by Disney back in 1998? The animation was quite a hit but the story line and approach was not really appreciated by the Chinese. The Chinese criticized the animation for its ironic Western plus Eastern styled storyline and the American tone of voice. That many of the future Chinese generations will remember the Disney (Western) version of Mulan, and not know the Chinese perspective of what she actually represents for Chinese culture is of course distressing for many locals and fear the same thing would happen again if Walt Disney were to buy out “The Pleasant Goat and the Big Big Wolf.”

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香港信报‧关愚谦‧29122009

各位读者，二○一○年的新年快到了，我首先祝贺大家百尺竿头，更进一步，一年比一年更好。今年二○○九圣诞节，我是在上海度过的，本来还想在上海好好度过一个热闹的圣诞节，谁知，找个联欢的地方都很难，只好自己在家中请客，真是太不可思议了。

几年前，我在上海度圣诞节，那时的热闹难以想象。满街彩色霓虹，楼楼红灯绿酒，人人兴高采烈，连我这「欧洲来人」都觉得有点过分，这是西方人基督教的节日，侬上海人凑什么热闹？可是，今年的圣诞上海街头虽仍是车水马龙，饭店也是挤得满满的，但与圣诞节的关系不大。圣诞树除在大酒店可以看到外，很少有人问津。

国际上四面楚歌？

我和一个计程车司机攀谈，他说，「西洋的东西，过去非常吃香，大家都来凑热闹，现在西洋东西除化妆品外，没有那么诱人了。中国品牌开始多起来了。人们开始买中国自制的汽车、电视，服装，又便宜，品质也愈来愈好，对洋玩意儿已不那么热情。这些很可能促使人们对圣诞节的冷淡。」我又问了一位在上海社会科学院工作的研究员，他说：「自从西方发生经济危机以来，上海人对西方人的价值观开始质疑，上海人是最现实的。圣诞节的热闹本来就是媒体炒起来的，是社会上的一股泡沫，现在媒体不炒了，人们也就开始冷淡了。随着社会物质生活的丰富，中国自己的产品的多样化，社会风气也就自然地在转化中。」听他一说，我这个「假洋鬼子」反而觉得不太自在。在西方过圣诞节已经习惯了，以后圣诞节还是在欧洲过好。

到年底了。是回忆二○○九这一年发生的事情的时候了。二○○九年是中国外交相当热闹的一年，高潮迭起。中国中央领导人频频出访，访问国家之多，历史罕见。由于国家经济实力强大，中国话语权比过去强多了，再碰上西方经济危机，许多国家虽然经济上开始有所好转，还是需中国拉一把。因而西方国家的人，从政客到老百姓，对中国的心态非常复杂，都极不平衡。

这次到北京与两位研究国际形势的德国、美国朋友谈中国的对外关系，我向他们试探地表示：中国在前一、两年，朋友遍天下，无论东方和西方，从政府层面上看，关系都处得很好。现在形势好像有所变化，中国好像有点「四面楚歌」的样子。东盟一些国家因为和中国争夺南沙群岛开发权，弄得有些不愉快；这次在哥本哈根气候变化峰会上，中国所采取的不妥协姿态，好像使西方国家，包括奥巴马总统在内，都很恼火，为此西方媒体发表了不少牢骚文章，说中国在挑拨第三世界和西方过不去。如果，西方国家一怒之下，从中挑拨中国和东盟和印度的关系，这是不是对中国不利？

美国朋友威廉斯表示：中国目前的地位和声势与过去很不同，全世界都非常重视中国的表态。一些弱势小国也都敢咄咄逼人，向西方大国发表尖锐的看法，这与中国的强大，起来向西方说「不」很有关系。

文艺复兴在大陆出现？

由此可见，中国目前所处的地位非常微妙。西方媒体和西方领导人过去在各个方面都起主导作用，他们说的话大家都只好听，现在中国不跟着走，让他们很恼火。发些牢骚也是极自然的。我认为，不要过多地去理会，他们主要是说给本国人听的。西方领导人目前开始重视中国的作用，这是一个转捩点，中国在回应他们的时候可以策略一些，不要让对方抓住把柄。至于对周围的小国，如东盟国家，倒需要特别小心，我最近到泰国和越南去，他们对中国的强大非常敏感。

德国朋友穆勒教授也来中国度假，我们的见面，对他来说是「他乡遇故知」，见到我们更是高兴万分。他说：目前在西方，对中国有两种不同观点，大部分来过中国的人对中国都比较友好，也产生了一定的感情。而那些对中国抱有极大成见的，大部分反倒是那些年轻知识分子，不知道中国历史，也没来过中国，想当然地认为，「共产主义国家」是不可能讲民主的。但是，这些人在将来都是德国的栋梁。中国在介绍自己方面应该增加些力度。不一定针锋相对，也不一定要解释。他们是听不进去的。「仁爱」自古以来就是中国人的道德准则，为什么不多加以介绍。你常说，中国过去的政治运动、夸大化的阶级斗争把中国人的思想和作风一再扭曲，这是西方的「有你无我，有我无你」的影响。那么我认为，既然你们中国过去是「礼仪之邦」，那么你们应该多在这方面做出榜样，多加以下工夫，保留自己的风格。中国的软文化是「柔能克钢刚」的。你们往这方面去做，久而久之，西方大多数人还是会看得清楚的。

我们知道，欧洲这几百年来的进步，应当感谢「文艺复兴」和「工业革命」。其实这两样目前在中国也已经开始发生，只是形式不同而已。道路当然是不会平坦的。争论、矛盾必然产生。这实际上是好事。问题是如何引导大家展开这方面的争论？

中国改革开放三十年，经济上去了，工业在突飞猛进，人们生活不断在提高，可是，给人们留下了思想上的空白，精神上出现了空虚。有相当多的人寻找宗教寄托。另一方面，目前愈来愈多的文化界人士开始反思，这种反思带动了人们对传统文化的兴趣，对儒道释的讨论开始热起来了。看样子这种讨论正在起着看不见、摸不着的作用。中国是否也正在出现文艺复兴和工业革命？很难说。

笔者常常给自己提出以下几个问题：

一，用什么钥匙打开中国传统文化的宝库？中国传统文化到底是什么？哪些是优秀的，哪些是糟粕？

二，中国传统文化是否和西方文化对立？还是可以互补？

三，在当前的全球化的影响下，中国的传统文化是否也可以成为世界文化的一个组成部分？

四，如何使中国的传统文化走出国门？加以推广？他应该在世界文化中起到什么角色？

五，中国传统文化里的哪一部分对未来的世界能起到特殊的作用？

我在东方和西方都住了几十年，对两国的文化都有肤浅的了解，我认为，中国文化在某些方面比西方的人权更有普世价值。西方有很多好的文化传统，绝对不能排斥，但中国古人常说的忠、孝、仁、爱、信、义、和、平、礼、仪、廉、耻、温、良、恭、俭、让，从境界上都远远高于西方的「人权」。西方人善于推广他们的道义，而我们的优秀哲学思想只限于士大夫去掌握，鲜为人知，现在应该加以推广。

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The Statistical Bureau and PBOC just released a set of November economic data.  Three points are noteworthy:

1) FAI growth surprised on the downside.  FAI ytd came in at 32.1%yoy, slowing from 33.1% in Jan-Oct and 1ppt below consensus.  On a single month basis, urban FAI growth slowed sharply to 24% yoy in Nov from 31% yoy in Oct and the recent peak of 39% in May.  The more interesting leading indicator is the RMB amount of newly started FAI projects: its yoy growth decelerated to 41% yoy in Nov from about 80% yoy in previous months and over 100% in Q2 this year.  It shows that the government has begun its control on the pace of new project starts, after seeing the macro risks (inflation, bad loans, etc) from the surge in FAI starts in the first half of this year.  

2) CPI inflation rose rapidly to 0.6% yoy in Nov, up 1.1ppt from -0.5% in Oct., stronger than consensus of 0.4% but in line with our forecast.  This is a milestone for China's on-going inflation cycle: the yoy figure now turns positive after 9 months of deflation.  And the pace of the recovery has been fast due to mom price increase as well as an increasingly less favorable base effect.  For November alone, the CPI was up 0.3% mom, with the strongest increases seen in textiles/apparels (up 0.9% mom) and housing (up 0.8% mom).  These reflect two important features of the Chinese economy today: export recovery (benefiting the pricing power of textile makers) and property price inflation.  We maintain our forecast that CPI inflation will reach 3.4% next year and will likely hit its monthly peak at around 4% in Q3 next year.

3) M1 growth continues to exceed M2 growth, indicating rising inflation expectations and a potential increase in the velocity of money.  Yoy M1 growth accelerated to 34.6% yoy in Nov, up another 2.6ppts from Oct.  M2 growth rose a bit to 29.7% yoy in Nov.  The differential between M1 growth and M2 growth has reached 5ppts.  This means that more households are moving their money from term deposits to demand deposits or cash.  Part of this shift reflects the rise in inflation expectations and suggests that more people are getting ready to spend.  Historically, 2-3 quarters after the M1-M2 growth differential turns positive, the velocity of money tends to rise and thus can drive inflation even without a further increase in money supply.

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转载按：放宽中小城市户籍限制意义深远，长期影响甚大，早该实行了

近年投资界喜欢从中国政府召开的各种大会中找寻「投资意念」，在长篇累牍的官方文章中释出微言大义，然后决定下一步的投资方向；这种做法没有错，因为大陆经济发展仍然由政策主导，政府的每一项措施都足以令某一个行业受惠，再带动相关的股份上升，金融海啸之后中国政府鼓励人民消费，于是有家电下乡和资助购车等优惠，结果有关的股份都录得可观升幅。既然如此，昨天闭幕的中央经济工作会议到底会传达什么讯息，对投资界来说便成为了「密切关注」的焦点。

但是，细读胡锦涛主席和温家宝总理的讲话，要在一大段政治语言中找出跟财金和投资有关的要点绝不容易，例如二○一○年经济工作六大主要任务中「深化经济体制改革，增强经济发展动力和活力」，其真正含意为何？即使看内地专家的解读也不容易摸清其中意思；又例如「做好明年经济工作，重点要在促进发展方式转变上下功夫，在发展中促转变，在转变中谋发展」，就更带点「玄」味，跟国外的政策文件简单直接的风格显然大不相同。

按内地专家的解读，中央经济工作会议的重点有以下几项―第一，明年会继续实施积极财政政策；换言之，中国政府认定明年的主要工作仍是保持经济增长，毋须把防通胀放在首位，政府也不会急于退市，取消刺激经济的措施。

第二，是转变发展方式，专家的解读是：长期以来中国的经济发展过于依赖投资和出口，集中在第二产业，依赖物资消耗，金融海啸之后，中国政府开始把增长率的高低，转向经济增长的效益和可持续性，具体来说，是提高自主创新的能力、加快培育战略性的新行业。

第三，除了货币政策不会改变，财政政策也会维持原状，但会由大量向基建工程投入，改为增加对教育、医疗卫生、社会保障等民生领域的投资。

第四，增加普通商品住房供应，加强廉租住房等保障住房建设；中央经济工作会议透露的讯息，是政府会针对中低收入群体的住屋需要，但却没有提出要打压楼市泡沫、限制房地产业发展，对本地的内房股及正在积极进军内地房地产市场的本地发展商来说，这应该算是好消息。

第五，放宽中小城市户籍限制，推动城镇化；以目前内地的城乡人口分布计，国家的城镇水平提高一个百分点，就有一千多万农民转为「城市人」；推动城镇化的结果，意味着会有更多农民进城，而城镇化的发展，必然会带动基础设施的投资，改善人民的生活水平，扩大消费规模；这项决策的效用，还有利于缩小城乡差距，令过去多年农民工在城乡之间的流动逐步稳定下来。城市化是所有发展中国家的必经之路，中国要达到此一目标，自然要放宽中小城市和城镇户籍的限制，这些措施除了经济效果，也有助解决国内的户籍制度限制人口流动以及由此而衍生的各种社会问题，是这次中央经济工作会议的其中一项重要决策。

第六，是推进垄断行业的体制改革，放宽市场准入，鼓励民间投资。目前内地的经济增长九成以上是靠投资拉动，而投资之中又主要依靠政府投资，民间投资出现趑趄不前的局面。中国政府目前正在研究对民间资本提供国民待遇，除了特别限制的行业，其他高度垄断的如金融、铁路、公路、航空、电信、电力、城市供水等，都应该允许民间资本以参股方式参与，一旦落实这项政策，投资者应该从中找到不少商机。

上述各项新政，目的都在促进刺激内需，减少依赖出口，但翻看纪录，早在二��一年的中央经济工作会议上，中央已为�二年的经济发展定调为「扩大内需」，八年下来，此一目标仍未实现！要谈转型，实在并不容易。

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